Mortgage Rates
June 28th, 2011Hello Everyone,
There has been much talk of late as to when and how far the Bank of Canada will be raising interest rates. Recently economists have been doing a lot of backpedalling regarding a rate hike. Originally, they were estimating that March or May would be the time for the increase to the overnight rate, which affects the prime lending rate. Lately July 19th has been the predicted date that the Bank of Canada would raise interest rates. Now, however, most economists are predicting that interest rates will not move until the fall, or later.
The reasons for this are the following:
- Weak economic data from the U.S.
- Core inflation remains manageable.
- Debt-laden consumers are only cautiously spending,
- U.S. housing market that is double-dipping.
- U.S. unemployment that may be structurally and permanently elevated.
- The value of the Canadian dollar.
What economists from the big 6 banks are predicting, on average, is that prime will increase by about .5% by the end of this year and +1.5% from what it is now until the end of December 2012.
What this means is that if you are in a variable rate mortgage, you will likely have some additional time before considering whether or not you should lock in. Often, by not locking in at all, you have a greater potential for savings. You will have to decide. However, I can help you with this decision by providing some illustrations and some number crunching. Another thing to keep in mind is that lenders reset the effective rate of their variables differently ie. one lender might change the effective rate immediately after the rate increase, while some will increase the effective rate up to 3 months after the increase. Check with me if you are not sure and I can confirm this for you.
The banks are also predicting that as 5-year bond yields begin to rise, by the end of 2012, deeply discounted 5-year fixed rate mortgages could be as high as 5%. Only time will tell and by then there could be many more revisions to these forecasts.
If you have questions about this or other topics, please call me any time. Have a great weekend!
Daniel Lewczuk
agent fsco. lic. M08011086
Mortgage Intelligence
fsco. lic.10428
Tel. 905-632-1800



